What you bring
The date, the start time and the course as a GPX file. With your weight, the bike and the full kit.
RACE STRATEGY · REMOTE
Race Plan for cycling and triathlon
The race is decided in three minutes you have not lived yet.
An eight-kilometre climb admits a thousand ways up, and only a few leave you whole for the next one. The difference between the good one and the one you rode last year is minutes, and it can be worked out beforehand: with your power curve, the real course and the forecast wind, the physics says what watts to hold on each section and what time that comes out to.
Remote · per race · plan on your head unit, report and video call
Pacing well is not riding comfortably: it is spreading the same effort better.
The same energy expenditure placed differently over the same course gives a different time, and on a long climb that difference is counted in minutes. The plan does not ask you for more watts: it tells you where to put them. It is computed on the actual route, with your weight, your position and the wind of the day you race.
It is a predictive service, and like any forecast it is worth what its inputs are worth. That is why it requires a prior assessment of your power, and why the report declares how good the data behind it was, instead of handing over a bare time and letting it look like a promise.
Investment
USD 90approx. COP 280,000
- Full course modelling with your power curve, your weight and the forecast wind.
- Head-unit file with target power section by section.
- Pacing report, estimated time and compared scenarios.
- Video call to work through the plan and its limits.
If you train with ONE, the Race Plan and the performance assessment are part of your process and are not charged separately.
How it is calculated
Three models that on their own do not answer the question.
The first is about you: your power curve built from your own files, with what you have shown you can hold, for how long, and at which durations recent efforts are missing to claim it. The second is physical and mathematical, and about the road: the course ridden metre by metre with its gradient, the air density at whatever altitude it sits, your aerodynamic drag and your rolling resistance. The third is meteorological and about the day: forecast wind and temperature at your start time, section by section. Crossing them leaves thousands of possible plans, and choosing which one makes sense for this rider and this race is no longer a calculation: none of those models knows you have slept badly for three weeks.
- Format
- Remote, delivered on a video call
- What is needed
- Date, start time, GPX and a prior assessment of your power
- Deliverable
- Head-unit plan, pacing report and scenarios
Reading the case
Almost nobody loses the race for lack of watts.
They are lost by spending them too early, on a ramp that decided nothing, or by riding too conservatively on the one section where the terrain paid the investment back. That can be calculated.
01What it solves
What it solves
- 01What power to climb each pass with, so you do not arrive spent at the one that decides the race.
- 02How much time it actually costs to ride five watts over on the first ramp.
- 03Where the section is that gives time back, which is almost never the one you think.
- 04What new wheels, one kilo less or a more aerodynamic riding position are worth, in seconds rather than in feelings.
- 05How much carbohydrate and fluid that particular demand asks for, hour by hour.
02Who it is for
Who it is for
- 01You have a dated race and want to start with the pacing decided, not improvised.
- 02You are riding a time trial or a triathlon, where you set the pace and not the group.
- 03You are preparing a gran fondo with long climbs and you know that is where it is decided.
- 04You already train with power and want to use it on race day too, not only to measure yourself.
Process and delivery
From a GPX and a date to a plan you can execute.
The whole process is remote and works on data that already exists. The one thing that cannot be missing is the power profile: it is the input everything else comes out of.
What we already know
Your power curve, from the prior assessment. Without it the model computes on an assumption.
The modelling
The course is ridden metre by metre with your real physics: gradient, forecast wind, air density and your aerodynamic drag.
The decision
Out of every possible plan we pick the one that makes sense for you, and explain why on a video call.
What you receive
- The plan loaded on your Garmin or Wahoo, with target power section by section.
- The pacing report: power, time and admissible variability sector by sector.
- Compared scenarios: what changes with more wind, one kilo less or a more aerodynamic riding position.
- The carbohydrate, fluid and sodium per hour that the modelled demand asks for.
- A video call to work through the plan and know when it stops applying.
- The plan hosted in the cloud tools, so you can open it again the night before.
What is underneath
A model is worth what its inputs are worth. Here they get measured.
Anyone can solve the cycling power equation: in fact we publish it for free in the site's calculators and it works. What cannot be improvised are the inputs. Your real power curve, your frontal area in the position you actually hold, the rolling resistance of your tyres and the air there will be on the day are not reasonable assumptions: they are measurements. The Race Plan exists to put all of them together.
What gets measured before anything is calculated
- Your power curve, not your FTP. How much you hold for five minutes and how much for three hours are different questions, and a long climb asks both. That is also where the W′ you can spend above threshold, and how fast it comes back when you ease off, come from.
- The position you will hold, measured.Frontal area is the variable internet models invent most. In the lab it is measured on the GURU Ultimate 3D simulator with markerless motion capture, with anthropometry under ISAK protocol and with dynamometry of each leg. The position in the photo is not the one at kilometre sixty, and that changes the CdA.
- Your bike, part by part. Real weight with everything fitted, rolling resistance by tyre and setup, and your drivetrain's mechanical loss. Between a clean high end chain and a dirty one there is more difference than between two riders a kilo apart.
What the software computes
- The real route, metre by metre. The GPX gives the gradient and the bearing of each section. Bearing weighs as much as gradient: on a climb that turns, the same wind is a tailwind low down and a headwind higher up.
- The air on the day, not an average.Density calculated from the altitude, temperature and humidity forecast for your start time, and the forecast wind projected onto each section's bearing. Climbing at 2,600 m on a cold morning is nothing like the same climb at noon.
- Compared scenarios, not one figure. The same effort spread differently gives a different time. Several ways of riding the course are run, and the one that gives the best time without emptying the tank too early wins.
- Working software, not a spreadsheet.Power history, load tracking and the athlete's longitudinal profile live in ONE Intelligence, with in-house software over the lab data, and riders who train with ONE see them in the Athlete Portal. Course modelling is solved with Best Bike Split on those same measured inputs. The curve that goes into the model is reviewed and chosen by the coach: there is no automatic connection to the experimental Bayesian engine. The plan comes out loadable on your Garmin or Wahoo.
Where artificial intelligence comes in, and where it does not
It is used as an analysis copilot: ordering long data series, spotting patterns across sessions and testing hypotheses faster than by hand. Language models are used today as internal support; pattern classification over our own data is still in validation, and we say which is which. What it does not do is decide: a number does not become a race strategy by passing through a model. That is signed by the person who works with you.
So what is the free calculator for?
For what it was built for, which is not nothing. TheAlto de Patios calculatorsolves the same equation over the climb's real GPX, with your weight, your bike and your position, and it is checked against a professional plan for the same segment: it lands within 1 % of it. If what you want is to know what watts a target time asks for on that climb, it works and it is free.
What it does not have is your power curve, your measured frontal area or the weather on your day. That is why it does one thing very well — a known climb, in still air — and the Race Plan does another: your race, with your data, in the conditions there will be.
Where it stops working
A model does not ride the race.
- It does not predict the result. It computes what your power can do over that course in those conditions. Who wins is decided by the day, the group and everyone else's legs.
- In a bunch, the group decides. The kilometres spent riding in a group are not yours to set, so the plan covers what you decide alone: the climbs, the moves and the finale. In a time trial and in non-drafting triathlon it applies from start to finish.
- It is worth what its inputs are worth. An invented power curve, a GPX without reliable elevation or a ten-day wind forecast produce a number with many decimals and little foundation. The report says which of the three was limping.
- It does not replace training. Spreading what you have better gives you minutes; having more to spread gives you far more. The plan orders race day, not the six months before it.
Before the plan
First we need to know what you hold.
The model starts from your power curve: what you can sustain for five minutes, twenty and two hours. That curve is established by the performance assessment, which also says what is holding you back. If you are going to model a race, that is the step that comes first.
If you train with ONE, that curve is already in your history and you see it in the Athlete Portal. Its quality flows straight into the plan: a power meter changed mid-season, months with gaps or a duration without recent efforts all change what can be claimed, and the report says so. The race plan uses that history as input; it does not replace the weekly calendar, which is a different job.
Frequently asked questions
Questions before requesting a race plan.
What exactly is a race plan?
It is the mathematical model of your race over the actual course, built before you ride it. Your power profile, the GPX of the route, your weight, your position and the wind forecast are combined to work out what power to hold on each section so the same energy takes less time, how long that comes out to, and where time is won and lost. It is not a pacing table written by eye: it is physics applied to your watts on that road.
What do you need from me?
Three things and one condition. The date and start time, because the wind and temperature of the day change the result; the course as a GPX file; and your weight together with that of the bike and your kit. The condition is a prior assessment of your power: without knowing what you can hold and for how long, the model computes on an assumption and stops being useful.
Why is a performance assessment needed first?
Because a race plan is arithmetic that starts from your power curve. If that curve is badly estimated, everything downstream is wrong with great precision, which is the worst way to be wrong. That is why the Race Plan rests on the performance assessment, which establishes what you actually hold and for how long.
How is it calculated?
Three models are crossed. One over your own power history, stating what you have shown you can hold and for how long, and at which durations recent efforts are missing to claim it. A physical and mathematical one of the course, applying gradient, air density, aerodynamic and rolling resistance metre by metre. And a meteorological one of the day and start time, placing forecast wind and temperature over each section. On top of the three sits the part that is not calculation: deciding which of the possible scenarios makes sense for you, which is judgement and not data science.
Does it work for gran fondo, time trials and triathlon?
Yes, and the model changes in each case. In a time trial or a non-drafting triathlon, where you are alone against the wind, precision is higher because you do not depend on a group. In a gran fondo or a race with a peloton the plan covers the sections you decide yourself — the climbs, the natural time trial at the end — and not the kilometres spent riding in a group, where the group sets the pace.
How accurate is it?
It depends on the quality of three inputs: your power curve, the GPX and the wind forecast. With all three sound, the estimated time usually lands close; with an invented power profile or a GPX without reliable elevation, it does not. The report states how good each input was, instead of handing over a bare time and letting it look like a promise.
Does it automatically use data from the Athlete Portal or the ONE engine?
Not automatically. If you train with ONE, the power curve from your history (the same one you see in the portal) is the main input, but your coach reviews it before modelling: a changed power meter, a season with gaps or a duration without recent efforts all change what can be claimed. The course is modelled with Best Bike Split. The Bayesian power–duration engine is experimental and has no automatic connection to this calculation.
Does it include support?
Yes. The plan is delivered on a video call, because a file with target power per section does not execute itself: you need to know what to do if you go over on the first ramp, what margin you have and when the plan stops applying. That conversation is part of the service, not an extra.
Is it included in the training plan?
Yes. Riders coached by ONE have the Race Plan and the performance assessment included in their process by default; they are booked separately only if you do not train with us. It follows from how we work: preparing a race without modelling it leaves the last decision to chance.
What does it cost?
USD 90 (approx. COP 280,000) per race, with the modelling, the head-unit file, the report and the video call included. If you train with ONE, you already have it.
Start with the pacing decided.
Send the date, the start time and the GPX. If we already have your power profile the plan comes out of it; if not, the assessment goes first and the race is modelled afterwards.
Choose how to start
The method behind the modelling
The method behind the modelling · 3 primary sourcesView the full citationsMartin and Spirduso 2001 · Jones et al. 2019 · Jeukendrup 2014
The sources behind the power model, the steady-state reading and the carbohydrate demand of the plan.
- Martin, J. C. and Spirduso, W. W. (2001). Determinants of maximal cycling power: crank length, pedaling rate and pedal speed. European Journal of Applied Physiology.
- Jones, A. M., Burnley, M., Black, M. I., Poole, D. C. and Vanhatalo, A. (2019). The maximal metabolic steady state: redefining the ‘gold standard’. Physiological Reports.
- Jeukendrup, A. E. (2014). A step towards personalized sports nutrition: carbohydrate intake during exercise. Sports Medicine.